UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Shane Carwin (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Carwin at 1317 versus Lesnar at 1191. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lesnar's wrestler game against Carwin's striker approach. Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Carwin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Carwin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Shane Carwin.** We're leaning Lesnar here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Akiyama at 985 versus Leben at 855. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akiyama throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Leben over Yoshihiro Akiyama.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leben at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). Brown will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1330 versus Brown at 1201. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lytle's wrestler game against Brown's knockout artist approach. Lytle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Lytle over Matt Brown.** The model gives Lytle a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 303 points above Soszynski's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar.** We're leaning Soszynski here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-3) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-4).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 298 points above Sotiropoulos's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sotiropoulos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pellegrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pellegrino the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Kurt Pellegrino.** The model gives Sotiropoulos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brendan Schaub (6-4) taking on Chris Tuchscherer (1-2). Schaub is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Schaub is rated at 1154 — 395 points above Tuchscherer's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuchscherer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Chris Tuchscherer.** We're leaning Schaub here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ricardo Romero (1-1) taking on Seth Petruzelli (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Romero at 838 versus Petruzelli at 716. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petruzelli throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petruzelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Seth Petruzelli over Ricardo Romero.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petruzelli at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Goran Reljic (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Grove.

Grove carries a modest Elo edge (994 to 939), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Reljic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Reljic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kendall Grove over Goran Reljic.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grove at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Harris (3-0) taking on David Branch (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Harris at 1129, Branch at 1136. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Harris rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Harris over David Branch.** The model gives Harris a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Roberts (3-3) taking on Forrest Petz (2-4). Roberts will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Roberts is rated at 974 — 189 points above Petz's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Roberts's wrestler game against Petz's striker approach. Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Petz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Petz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Forrest Petz.** We're leaning Roberts here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jon Madsen (4-0) taking on Karlos Vemola (2-3). Vemola will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Madsen is rated at 1098 — 258 points above Vemola's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Madsen rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vemola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Madsen over Karlos Vemola.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Madsen at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.