UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Caio Borralho (7-0) taking on Jared Cannonier (11-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Borralho at 1570 versus Cannonier at 1426. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Borralho rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Borralho's all-rounder game against Cannonier's striker approach. Borralho is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cannonier brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannonier throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Borralho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Caio Borralho over Jared Cannonier.** We're leaning Borralho here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tabatha Ricci (6-3) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ricci is rated at 1355 — 281 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ricci looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ricci the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Angela Hill.** We're leaning Ricci here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Loder (1-1) taking on Robert Valentin (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Loder at 907 versus Valentin at 783. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Valentin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Valentin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Valentin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Valentin over Ryan Loder.** The model gives Valentin a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Mairon Santos (3-0) taking on Kaan Ofli (1-2). Santos will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Santos is rated at 1376 — 291 points above Ofli's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ofli throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ofli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ofli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mairon Santos over Kaan Ofli.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Magny.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 583 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Magny's all-rounder approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Morales over Neil Magny.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 447 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over Gerald Meerschaert.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shahbazyan at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Francis Marshall (2-2) taking on Dennis Buzukja (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Marshall at 933, Buzukja at 918. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buzukja throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Marshall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Buzukja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Marshall over Dennis Buzukja.** The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Zach Reese (4-2) taking on Jose Daniel Medina (0-2). Reese is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Reese is rated at 993 — 315 points above Medina's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Medina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Medina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zach Reese over Jose Daniel Medina.** The model gives Reese a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1) taking on James Llontop (0-2). Llontop will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Borshchev at 812, Llontop at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borshchev throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Llontop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Llontop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev over James Llontop.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Borshchev at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (4-0) taking on Josiane Nunes (3-2). Cavalcanti is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cavalcanti is rated at 1291 — 424 points above Nunes's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcanti throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Josiane Nunes.** We're leaning Cavalcanti here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Wang Cong (3-1) taking on Victoria Leonardo (1-3).

Cong is rated at 1242 — 462 points above Leonardo's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leonardo throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Leonardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wang Cong over Victoria Leonardo.** The model gives Cong a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.