The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Court McGee (11-12) taking on Kris McCray (0-2).

McGee is rated at 1037 — 236 points above McCray's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCray throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McCray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McCray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Kris McCray. The model gives McGee a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6).

Hamill is rated at 1150 — 200 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Keith Jardine. The model gives Hamill a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Aaron Simpson (7-3).

Simpson is rated at 1097 — 242 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Simpson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simpson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Chris Leben. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Simpson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7).

Siver is rated at 1214 — 338 points above Fisher's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Siver's knockout artist game against Fisher's all-rounder approach. Siver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Dennis Siver. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fisher at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rich Attonito (3-1) taking on Jamie Yager (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Attonito at 985 versus Yager at 873. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yager throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yager is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yager has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Yager over Rich Attonito. The model gives Yager a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features John Gunderson (1-1) taking on Mark Holst (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gunderson at 920 versus Holst at 813. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gunderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gunderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Holst has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Holst over John Gunderson. The model gives Holst a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tavares at 925 versus Baczynski at 796. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Tavares's striker game against Baczynski's all-rounder approach. Tavares brings a versatile approach, while Baczynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Baczynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Baczynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Tavares over Seth Baczynski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tavares at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Josh Bryant (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Noke at 869, Bryant at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bryant throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bryant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bryant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Bryant over Kyle Noke. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bryant at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on James Hammortree (0-0).

Camozzi carries a modest Elo edge (986 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hammortree throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hammortree is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hammortree has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over James Hammortree. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camozzi at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on James McSweeney (1-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 287 points above McSweeney's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McSweeney throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McSweeney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Browne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Travis Browne over James McSweeney. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browne at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.