UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Dan Hardy (5-4).

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 760 points above Hardy's 1262. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Dan Hardy.** The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 83%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shane Carwin (4-1) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Carwin carries a modest Elo edge (1317 to 1252), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Carwin's striker game against Mir's submission artist approach. Carwin brings a versatile approach, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Carwin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Carwin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frank Mir over Shane Carwin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mir at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 370 points above Camoes's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Pellegrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Fabricio Camoes.** The model gives Pellegrino a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 585 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saunders is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Saunders over Jon Fitch.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saunders at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Mark Bocek (7-5). Bocek will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 1213, Bocek at 1230. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Mark Bocek.** We're leaning Miller here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Rory Markham (1-1). Diaz will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 614 points above Markham's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markham throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Rory Markham.** The model is firm on this one: Diaz at 83%.

The Welterweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-4) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Almeida at 1189, Brown at 1201. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Almeida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Matt Brown.** The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Tomasz Drwal (3-2). Drwal is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Palhares is rated at 1251 — 242 points above Drwal's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Drwal throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Drwal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tomasz Drwal over Rousimar Palhares.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Drwal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jared Hamman (2-4) taking on Rodney Wallace (0-2). Hamman is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wallace carries a modest Elo edge (812 to 734), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 7.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wallace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Hamman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodney Wallace over Jared Hamman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wallace at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Greg Soto (1-1). Riddle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Riddle at 1158 versus Soto at 1013. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Greg Soto.** We're leaning Riddle here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.