UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5).

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 581 points above Nogueira's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.** The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 81%.

The Middleweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (4-7) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 240 points above Silva's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Bisping's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Bisping is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Bisping over Wanderlei Silva.** We're leaning Bisping here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features George Sotiropoulos (7-3) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Sotiropoulos.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sotiropoulos at 918, Stevenson at 907. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sotiropoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sotiropoulos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Sotiropoulos over Joe Stevenson.** The model gives Sotiropoulos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 668 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bader's wrestler game against Jardine's striker approach. Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Keith Jardine.** The model is firm on this one: Bader at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (4-6) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6).

Filipovic is rated at 1145 — 273 points above Perosh's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Filipovic's striker game against Perosh's submission artist approach. Filipovic brings a versatile approach, while Perosh is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mirko Filipovic over Anthony Perosh.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Filipovic at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 303 points above Soszynski's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Soszynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Soszynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Soszynski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar.** We're leaning Soszynski here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Brian Foster (2-2). Foster will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1330 versus Foster at 1185. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Foster is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Foster over Chris Lytle.** The model gives Foster a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Goran Reljic (1-2). Reljic will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dollaway at 965, Reljic at 939. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reljic throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Goran Reljic.** The model is firm on this one: Dollaway at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-4) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-7).

Huna carries a modest Elo edge (843 to 764), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Huna's striker game against Pokrajac's all-rounder approach. Huna brings a versatile approach, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pokrajac throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Te Huna over Igor Pokrajac.** The model gives Huna a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.