UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Saturday, August 17, 2024·Perth, Western Australia, Australia·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Dricus Du Plessis won by Submission (R4)
Plessis 61%39% Adesanya
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
LEANMarket: 50% (+11.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +75(favors Plessis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Plessis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Plessis)
FlyweightMISS
Kai Kara-France won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kara-France 23%77% Erceg
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 30% (-6.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Erceg)
LightweightMISS
Dan Hooker won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hooker 24%76% Gamrot
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 23% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -319(favors Gamrot)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Gamrot)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rozenstruik 65%35% Tuivasa
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 67% (-2.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +109(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
WelterweightHIT
Carlos Prates won by KO/TKO (R2)
Prates 76%24% Jingliang
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 76% (-0.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Jingliang)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Prates)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Jingliang)
Prelims
HeavyweightMISS
Valter Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 45%55% Tafa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
LEANMarket: 52% (-7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -253(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Walker)
FeatherweightMISS
Ricardo Ramos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ramos 41%59% Culibao
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 47% (-5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Culibao)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ramos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Ramos)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Casey O'Neill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
O'Neill 35%65% Santos
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 44% (-8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Santos)
FeatherweightHIT
Jack Jenkins won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jenkins 81%19% Burns
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 84% (-2.1% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +175(favors Jenkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Jenkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Burns)
Early Prelims
LightweightHIT
Tom Nolan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nolan 83%17% Reyes
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +225(favors Nolan)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.2(favors Nolan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reyes)
WelterweightMISS
Song Kenan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenan 43%57% Glenn
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Kenan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Kenan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Kenan)
FlyweightHIT
Jesus Aguilar won by Submission (R1)
Aguilar 54%46% Nicoll
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +72(favors Aguilar)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Aguilar)