UFC 108: Evans vs Silva: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva lands on Saturday, January 2, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Evans vs Thiago SilvaLight Heavyweight | Rashad Evans | Confident | 65% |
| Paul Daley vs Dustin HazelettWelterweight | Paul Daley | Lean | 56% |
| Sam Stout vs Joe LauzonLightweight | Sam Stout | Lean | 55% |
| Jim Miller vs Duane LudwigLightweight | Jim Miller | Lean | 59% |
| Junior Dos Santos vs Gilbert YvelHeavyweight | Junior Dos Santos | Strong | 80% |
| Martin Kampmann vs Jacob VolkmannWelterweight | Martin Kampmann | Toss-up | 52% |
| Cole Miller vs Dan LauzonLightweight | Cole Miller | Toss-up | 50% |
| Mark Munoz vs Ryan JensenMiddleweight | Mark Munoz | Confident | 67% |
| Jake Ellenberger vs Mike PyleWelterweight | Jake Ellenberger | Confident | 69% |
| Rafaello Oliveira vs John GundersonLightweight | Rafaello Oliveira | Lean | 56% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Rashad Evans vs Thiago Silva
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Thiago Silva (6-3).
Silva is rated at 1362 — 241 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Evans brings a versatile approach, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Rashad Evans over Thiago Silva.** We're leaning Evans here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Paul Daley vs Dustin Hazelett
The Welterweight matchup features Paul Daley (2-0) taking on Dustin Hazelett (5-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Hazelett.
Daley is rated at 1292 — 318 points above Hazelett's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Daley throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hazelett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Daley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Paul Daley over Dustin Hazelett.** The model gives Daley a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Sam Stout vs Joe Lauzon
The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).
Lauzon is rated at 1036 — 279 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Stout's striker game against Lauzon's submission artist approach. Stout brings a versatile approach, while Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Sam Stout over Joe Lauzon.** The model gives Stout a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Jim Miller vs Duane Ludwig
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Duane Ludwig (4-4).
Miller is rated at 1213 — 360 points above Ludwig's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Ludwig's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ludwig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Jim Miller over Duane Ludwig.** The model gives Miller a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Junior Dos Santos vs Gilbert Yvel
The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Gilbert Yvel (0-2).
Santos is rated at 1191 — 347 points above Yvel's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yvel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yvel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Junior Dos Santos over Gilbert Yvel.** The model is firm on this one: Santos at 80%.
Martin Kampmann vs Jacob Volkmann
The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Jacob Volkmann (6-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kampmann.
Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 330 points above Volkmann's 1028. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Kampmann is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Volkmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Volkmann the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Jacob Volkmann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kampmann at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Cole Miller vs Dan Lauzon
The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Dan Lauzon (0-2).
Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Cole Miller over Dan Lauzon.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Mark Munoz vs Ryan Jensen
The Middleweight matchup features Mark Munoz (8-6) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5). Jensen will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.
Munoz is rated at 1082 — 324 points above Jensen's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Mark Munoz over Ryan Jensen.** We're leaning Munoz here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jake Ellenberger vs Mike Pyle
The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8). Pyle is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ellenberger at 847, Pyle at 831. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Ellenberger's all-rounder game against Pyle's knockout artist approach. Ellenberger is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pyle is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Mike Pyle.** We're leaning Ellenberger here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rafaello Oliveira vs John Gunderson
The Lightweight matchup features Rafaello Oliveira (2-5) taking on John Gunderson (1-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Gunderson at 920 versus Oliveira at 818. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gunderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
**The Pick: Rafaello Oliveira over John Gunderson.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.