UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Lyoto Machida (16-8) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-12-1).

Machida is rated at 1596 — 539 points above Rua's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Machida is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rua brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Machida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Mauricio Rua. We're leaning Machida here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-3) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rothwell.

Velasquez is rated at 1747 — 527 points above Rothwell's 1220. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's knockout artist game against Rothwell's all-rounder approach. Velasquez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Rothwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Ben Rothwell. The model is firm on this one: Velasquez at 83%.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-12) taking on Josh Neer (6-9).

Tibau is rated at 1163 — 208 points above Neer's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Josh Neer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-8) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-8).

Stevenson carries a modest Elo edge (1067 to 1004), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stevenson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Spencer Fisher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-6) taking on Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-3). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1785 — 852 points above Yoshida's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Yoshida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Yoshiyuki Yoshida. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (15-5) taking on Eric Schafer (3-6).

Bader is rated at 1658 — 737 points above Schafer's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Schafer is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schafer throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Eric Schafer. The model is firm on this one: Bader at 76%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-7) taking on Antoni Hardonk (4-4). Hardonk is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Barry carries a modest Elo edge (1012 to 943), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardonk throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hardonk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Barry over Antoni Hardonk. The model gives Barry a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-7) taking on Yushin Okami (14-7).

Sonnen is rated at 1528 — 299 points above Okami's 1229. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's striker game against Okami's wrestler approach. Sonnen brings a versatile approach, while Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Chael Sonnen. The model gives Okami a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (8-7) taking on Rob Kimmons (3-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rivera.

Rivera is rated at 1203 — 436 points above Kimmons's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rivera's knockout artist game against Kimmons's wrestler approach. Rivera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kimmons looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Rob Kimmons. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-5) taking on Razak Al-Hassan (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kingsbury at 869 versus Al-Hassan at 743. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Al-Hassan throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Hassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Al-Hassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Razak Al-Hassan. The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-11) taking on Chase Gormley (0-2).

Struve is rated at 1071 — 415 points above Gormley's 656. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gormley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gormley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Chase Gormley. We're leaning Struve here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.