UFC 100
Saturday, July 11, 2009·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Jon Fitch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fitch 64%36% Thiago
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +232(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Fitch)
Heavyweight✓
Brock Lesnar won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lesnar 63%37% Mir
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Lesnar)
Welterweight✓
Georges St-Pierre won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
St-Pierre 74%26% Alves
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors St-Pierre)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors St-Pierre)
Middleweight✗
Dan Henderson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Henderson 39%61% Bisping
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -164(favors Bisping)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Henderson)
Middleweight✗
Yoshihiro Akiyama won by Decision - Split (R3)
Akiyama 35%65% Belcher
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Belcher)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Belcher)
Light Heavyweight✗
Mark Coleman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Coleman 27%73% Bonnar
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -229(favors Bonnar)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Coleman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Coleman)
Lightweight✓
Jim Miller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miller 65%35% Danzig
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +224(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Danzig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Miller)
Light Heavyweight✓
Jon Jones won by Submission (R2)
Jones 73%27% O'Brien
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors O'Brien)
Welterweight✓
Dong Hyun Kim won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kim 51%49% Grant
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Grant)
Middleweight✗
Tom Lawlor won by Submission (R1)
Lawlor 48%52% Dollaway
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -114(favors Dollaway)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Dollaway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Lawlor)
Lightweight✓
Shannon Gugerty won by Submission (R1)
Gugerty 68%32% Grice
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +180(favors Gugerty)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Grice)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Gugerty)