UFC 99: The Comeback: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7). Franklin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1282 — 188 points above Franklin's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Franklin's all-rounder game against Silva's striker approach. Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Wanderlei Silva. We're leaning Franklin here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 406 points above Kongo's 1183. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Velasquez's submission artist game against Kongo's striker approach. Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kongo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 7.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Cheick Kongo. We're leaning Velasquez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (4-6) taking on Mostapha Al-Turk (0-2). Al-Turk will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Filipovic is rated at 1145 — 347 points above Al-Turk's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Filipovic throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Filipovic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirko Filipovic over Mostapha Al-Turk. The model gives Filipovic a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9).

Swick is rated at 1045 — 232 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Saunders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Saunders over Mike Swick. The model gives Saunders a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2).

Uno carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Uno the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Uno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caol Uno over Spencer Fisher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Uno at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1262 — 230 points above Davis's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hardy over Marcus Davis. The model gives Hardy a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Justin Buchholz (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Etim at 947 versus Buchholz at 810. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Etim throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Etim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Etim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Etim over Justin Buchholz. We're leaning Etim here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Dale Hartt (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Hartt.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 311 points above Hartt's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hartt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dale Hartt over Dennis Siver. The model gives Hartt a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Taylor (3-5) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5). Sobotta will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Taylor at 1057, Sobotta at 1083. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Taylor is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sobotta is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sobotta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Peter Sobotta over Paul Taylor. The model gives Sobotta a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Kelly (5-3) taking on Rolando Delgado (1-1). Delgado is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kelly at 998 versus Delgado at 866. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Delgado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Kelly over Rolando Delgado. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelly at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Denis Stojnic (0-1).

Struve carries a modest Elo edge (878 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stojnic throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stojnic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stojnic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Denis Stojnic. The model gives Struve a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Rick Story (12-6). Hathaway is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Story at 1358 versus Hathaway at 1241. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Both fighters bring momentum: Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Story has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hathaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 16.3 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over Rick Story. The model is firm on this one: Hathaway at 77%.