UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6). Jardine will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jackson is rated at 1296 — 346 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Keith Jardine. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shane Carwin (4-1) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9). Carwin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carwin is rated at 1317 — 350 points above Gonzaga's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Carwin's striker game against Gonzaga's submission artist approach. Carwin brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Carwin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Carwin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Carwin over Gabriel Gonzaga. We're leaning Carwin here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Pete Sell (2-4).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 338 points above Sell's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Pete Sell. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Hamill will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hamill carries a modest Elo edge (1150 to 1082), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Hamill's striker game against Munoz's wrestler approach. Hamill brings a versatile approach, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Mark Munoz. We're leaning Hamill here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Jim Miller (27-17).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 239 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maynard's wrestler game against Miller's knockout artist approach. Maynard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gray Maynard over Jim Miller. The model gives Maynard a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Tamdan McCrory (4-4) taking on Ryan Madigan (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: McCrory at 976 versus Madigan at 870. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCrory throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Madigan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over Ryan Madigan. The model is firm on this one: McCrory at 75%.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Jason Day (1-1). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Grove carries a modest Elo edge (994 to 933), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Day throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Grove is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kendall Grove over Jason Day. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Grove at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Brilz (3-3) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11). Boetsch will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 229 points above Brilz's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brilz's wrestler game against Boetsch's striker approach. Brilz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Boetsch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brilz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Jason Brilz. The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Michael Patt (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vera at 945 versus Patt at 819. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patt throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Vera over Michael Patt. The model is firm on this one: Vera at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Shane Nelson (2-1) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5).

Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shane Nelson over Aaron Riley. We're leaning Nelson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.