UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Forrest Griffin (9-5). Griffin is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 208 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Evans brings a versatile approach, while Griffin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Griffin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashad Evans over Forrest Griffin.** The model gives Evans a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 244 points above Nogueira's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nogueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira over Frank Mir.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nogueira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-4). Dollaway will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dollaway is rated at 965 — 158 points above Massenzio's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.1 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Mike Massenzio.** The model gives Dollaway a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jackson at 1296, Silva at 1282. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Wanderlei Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jackson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Mostapha Al-Turk (0-2). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 385 points above Al-Turk's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Al-Turk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Mostapha Al-Turk.** We're leaning Kongo here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Dean Lister (4-1).

Lister is rated at 1214 — 152 points above Okami's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Okami throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Dean Lister.** The model is firm on this one: Okami at 78%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antoni Hardonk (4-3) taking on Mike Wessel (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hardonk at 948, Wessel at 943. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardonk throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wessel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wessel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antoni Hardonk over Mike Wessel.** The model gives Hardonk a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Reese Andy (0-1).

Hamill is rated at 1150 — 249 points above Andy's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Hamill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Hamill over Reese Andy.** We're leaning Hamill here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brad Blackburn (3-1) taking on Ryo Chonan (1-2). Blackburn will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Blackburn at 943, Chonan at 921. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackburn throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chonan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blackburn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Blackburn over Ryo Chonan.** The model gives Blackburn a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-6) taking on Dan Evensen (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barry at 910 versus Evensen at 812. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evensen throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Evensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pat Barry over Dan Evensen.** We're leaning Barry here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.