The Ultimate Fighter: Team Nogueira vs. Team Mir Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Efrain Escudero (5-6) taking on Phillipe Nover (1-5).

Escudero is rated at 941 — 175 points above Nover's 767. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Escudero is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nover looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nover the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nover throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nover is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nover has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phillipe Nover over Efrain Escudero.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nover at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Vinny Magalhaes (1-3).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 734 points above Magalhaes's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vinny Magalhaes over Ryan Bader.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magalhaes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Kevin Burns (2-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 853 points above Burns's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Kevin Burns.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gouveia is rated at 1030 — 199 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gouveia is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving MacDonald the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Jason MacDonald.** The model gives Gouveia a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Junie Browning (1-0) taking on David Kaplan (0-1).

Browning is rated at 1005 — 175 points above Kaplan's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kaplan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kaplan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kaplan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junie Browning over David Kaplan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browning at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Shane Primm (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Soszynski at 975 versus Primm at 890. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Primm throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Primm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Primm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Primm over Krzysztof Soszynski.** The model gives Primm a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eliot Marshall (3-2) taking on Jules Bruchez (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Marshall at 889, Bruchez at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bruchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bruchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bruchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eliot Marshall over Jules Bruchez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Marshall at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-4) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-4). Kingsbury is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lawlor is rated at 1205 — 370 points above Kingsbury's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawlor's submission artist game against Kingsbury's striker approach. Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kingsbury brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kingsbury throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Tom Lawlor.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kingsbury at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Shane Nelson (2-1) taking on George Roop (5-7). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nelson carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 881), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Roop over Shane Nelson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roop at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rolando Delgado (1-1) taking on John Polakowski (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Delgado at 866, Polakowski at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Polakowski throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Polakowski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Polakowski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rolando Delgado over John Polakowski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Delgado at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.