UFC 88: Breakthrough: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Evans at 1121 versus Liddell at 1035. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashad Evans over Chuck Liddell.** We're leaning Evans here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Matt Hamill (10-4).

Hamill carries a modest Elo edge (1150 to 1094), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Franklin's all-rounder game against Hamill's striker approach. Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hamill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Hamill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over Matt Hamill.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Franklin at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Rousimar Palhares (7-4). Henderson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 153 points above Palhares's 1251. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Henderson's striker game against Palhares's submission artist approach. Henderson brings a versatile approach, while Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Henderson over Rousimar Palhares.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Henderson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Martin Kampmann (11-5).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 294 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Marquardt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kampmann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Marquardt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Martin Kampmann.** The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kim at 1318 versus Brown at 1201. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Matt Brown.** We're leaning Kim here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pellegrino at 1215 versus Tavares at 1124. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pellegrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Thiago Tavares.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pellegrino at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Michael Patt (0-1).

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 354 points above Patt's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Patt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Michael Patt.** The model is firm on this one: Boetsch at 83%.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Jason Lambert (4-3). MacDonald will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lambert carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 831), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lambert is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving MacDonald the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lambert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lambert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Jason Lambert.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward MacDonald at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ryo Chonan (1-2) taking on Roan Carneiro (4-4). Carneiro is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Carneiro is rated at 1115 — 194 points above Chonan's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chonan throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Chonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roan Carneiro over Ryo Chonan.** The model gives Carneiro a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.