UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Leon Edwards (14-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 151 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Belal Muhammad.** We're leaning Edwards here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 283 points above Blaydes's 1634. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blaydes brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Aspinall the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Curtis Blaydes.** We're leaning Aspinall here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-0) taking on King Green (13-12-1).

Pimblett is rated at 1568 — 393 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pimblett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pimblett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pimblett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Paddy Pimblett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2). Duncan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodrigues at 1515 versus Duncan at 1424. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Christian Leroy Duncan.** The model gives Rodrigues a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Giga Chikadze (8-3). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1468 — 318 points above Chikadze's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Chikadze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Arnold Allen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chikadze at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 410 points above Pineda's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pineda looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pineda the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Daniel Pineda.** We're leaning Wood here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Bruna Brasil (3-3) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Brasil is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Brasil at 959 versus McCann at 834. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bruna Brasil over Molly McCann.** The model gives Brasil a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jake Hadley (3-3) taking on Caolan Loughran (1-2).

Loughran carries a modest Elo edge (1041 to 967), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loughran throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Loughran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hadley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Caolan Loughran over Jake Hadley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Loughran at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Manel Kape (6-3). Mokaev is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kape at 1586 versus Mokaev at 1480. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mokaev's wrestler game against Kape's knockout artist approach. Mokaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kape is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kape throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Manel Kape.** We're leaning Mokaev here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Oban Elliott (3-1) taking on Preston Parsons (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Elliott at 997 versus Parsons at 867. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Parsons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oban Elliott over Preston Parsons.** The model gives Elliott a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6). Bukauskas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bukauskas is rated at 1168 — 349 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Prachnio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Marcin Prachnio.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bukauskas at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Sam Patterson (3-1) taking on Kiefer Crosbie (0-2). Patterson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Patterson is rated at 1343 — 597 points above Crosbie's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crosbie throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Crosbie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Patterson over Kiefer Crosbie.** The model gives Patterson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mick Parkin (4-0) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5).

Parkin is rated at 1239 — 432 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Parkin rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parkin throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Parkin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Parkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mick Parkin over Lukasz Brzeski.** The model is firm on this one: Parkin at 77%.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shauna Bannon (2-1) taking on Alice Ardelean (1-2). Bannon is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bannon carries a modest Elo edge (1003 to 968), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bannon throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ardelean is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ardelean has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alice Ardelean over Shauna Bannon.** The model gives Ardelean a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.