UFC: Silva vs Irvin: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on James Irvin (4-5).

Silva is rated at 1154 — 299 points above Irvin's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over James Irvin.** The model is firm on this one: Silva at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Reese Andy (0-1).

Vera carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Andy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Vera over Reese Andy.** The model is firm on this one: Vera at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Hermes Franca (6-4). Franca will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edgar carries a modest Elo edge (1185 to 1107), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Franca the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Hermes Franca.** We're leaning Edgar here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Jake O'Brien (4-2).

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 587 points above O'Brien's 1002. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Velasquez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while O'Brien looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving O'Brien the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 15.4 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.0 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Jake O'Brien.** The model gives Velasquez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Burns (2-2) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 853 points above Burns's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Kevin Burns.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Jesse Taylor (0-1). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dollaway at 965, Taylor at 949. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Jesse Taylor.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Credeur (3-1) taking on Cale Yarbrough (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Credeur at 1018 versus Yarbrough at 873. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yarbrough throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yarbrough is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yarbrough has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cale Yarbrough over Tim Credeur.** We're leaning Yarbrough here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory Markham (1-1) taking on Brodie Farber (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Markham at 943 versus Farber at 824. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Farber throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Farber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Farber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brodie Farber over Rory Markham.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Farber at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Loughran (1-0) taking on Johnny Rees (0-1).

Loughran is rated at 989 — 203 points above Rees's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rees throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rees is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rees has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Rees over Nate Loughran.** The model gives Rees a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brad Blackburn (3-1) taking on James Giboo (0-0).

Blackburn carries a modest Elo edge (943 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giboo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Giboo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Giboo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Giboo over Brad Blackburn.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Giboo at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Shannon Gugerty (2-2) taking on Dale Hartt (1-1).

Gugerty carries a modest Elo edge (971 to 903), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hartt throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hartt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hartt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shannon Gugerty over Dale Hartt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gugerty at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.