UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Quinton Jackson (7-5). Griffin is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Griffin carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1296), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Griffin's all-rounder game against Jackson's striker approach. Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jackson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson.** We're leaning Griffin here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Patrick Cote (10-10) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-4).

Cote carries a modest Elo edge (1221 to 1189), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Almeida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cote throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Patrick Cote over Ricardo Almeida.** We're leaning Cote here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tibau.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tibau at 1019 versus Stevenson at 907. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Stevenson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Tibau the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Stevenson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Gleison Tibau.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). Koscheck will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 390 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Koscheck the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Chris Lytle.** The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Marcus Aurelio (2-3). Aurelio is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Aurelio carries a modest Elo edge (969 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Griffin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aurelio is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Griffin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aurelio throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Aurelio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Marcus Aurelio.** We're leaning Griffin here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Justin McCully (2-1). Gonzaga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gonzaga at 967, McCully at 974. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Justin McCully.** The model gives Gonzaga a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Jorge Gurgel (3-3). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurgel throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cole Miller over Jorge Gurgel.** The model gives Miller a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Guillard.

Siver carries a modest Elo edge (1214 to 1177), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Guillard's striker game against Siver's all-rounder approach. Guillard brings a versatile approach, while Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Dennis Siver.** The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Buchholz (1-3) taking on Corey Hill (1-1). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Buchholz at 810, Hill at 786. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Corey Hill over Justin Buchholz.** We're leaning Hill here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.