The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs Team Forrest Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Evan Tanner (11-5). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Tanner carries a modest Elo edge (1034 to 994), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Grove is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tanner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Tanner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Evan Tanner over Kendall Grove.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanner at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Dollaway.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sadollah at 946, Dollaway at 965. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: CB Dollaway over Amir Sadollah.** The model gives Dollaway a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-4). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 152 points above Fioravanti's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's wrestler game against Fioravanti's striker approach. Sanchez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fioravanti brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fioravanti throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fioravanti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Luigi Fioravanti.** The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Stephens is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Stephens carries a modest Elo edge (941 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Fisher's all-rounder game against Stephens's striker approach. Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Spencer Fisher.** We're leaning Stephens here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on Dante Rivera (0-0).

Riddle is rated at 1158 — 243 points above Rivera's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Dante Rivera.** The model gives Riddle a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dustin Hazelett (5-4) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Hazelett is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hazelett is rated at 973 — 230 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Burkman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Hazelett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Hazelett over Joshua Burkman.** The model gives Hazelett a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Drew McFedries (4-4) taking on Marvin Eastman (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring McFedries.

McFedries is rated at 983 — 174 points above Eastman's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. McFedries has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drew McFedries over Marvin Eastman.** The model gives McFedries a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Matt Arroyo (1-1). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1201 — 314 points above Arroyo's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arroyo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Arroyo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Arroyo over Matt Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arroyo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Dean Lister (4-1) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-6).

Lister is rated at 1214 — 278 points above Horn's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Lister has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dean Lister over Jeremy Horn.** The model gives Lister a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rob Kimmons (3-3) taking on Rob Yundt (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kimmons at 798, Yundt at 799. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yundt throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Yundt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kimmons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Kimmons over Rob Yundt.** The model gives Kimmons a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.