UFC 84: Ill Will: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Sean Sherk (7-4). Penn is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sherk is rated at 1371 — 434 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Penn's knockout artist game against Sherk's wrestler approach. Penn is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sherk looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: BJ Penn over Sean Sherk.** We're leaning Penn here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (4-7) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6). Jardine is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1282 — 332 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keith Jardine over Wanderlei Silva.** The model gives Jardine a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Goran Reljic (1-2) taking on Wilson Gouveia (6-3). Reljic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gouveia at 1030 versus Reljic at 939. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Reljic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Goran Reljic over Wilson Gouveia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reljic at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 434 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Tito Ortiz.** We're leaning Machida here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Antonio Mendes (0-1). Mendes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1362 — 491 points above Mendes's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Silva over Antonio Mendes.** We're leaning Silva here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Ivan Salaverry (3-3).

Palhares is rated at 1251 — 377 points above Salaverry's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Salaverry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Palhares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salaverry throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Salaverry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ivan Salaverry over Rousimar Palhares.** The model gives Salaverry a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (1-1) taking on Kazuhiro Nakamura (0-1). Sokoudjou will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sokoudjou is rated at 987 — 159 points above Nakamura's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nakamura throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sokoudjou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Sokoudjou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou over Kazuhiro Nakamura.** We're leaning Sokoudjou here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Rich Clementi (5-4) taking on Terry Etim (6-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Etim.

There's a real Elo separation here: Clementi at 1034 versus Etim at 947. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clementi throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Clementi over Terry Etim.** The model gives Clementi a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Yoshiyuki Yoshida (2-2) taking on War Machine (1-0).

Machine carries a modest Elo edge (978 to 943), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machine throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Machine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Yoshida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: War Machine over Yoshiyuki Yoshida.** We're leaning Machine here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Jason Tan (0-1).

Kim is rated at 1318 — 482 points above Tan's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tan throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Tan over Dong Hyun Kim.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shane Carwin (4-1) taking on Christian Wellisch (2-2). Carwin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carwin is rated at 1317 — 426 points above Wellisch's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wellisch throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wellisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Carwin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Wellisch over Shane Carwin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wellisch at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.