UFC 78: Validation
Saturday, November 17, 2007·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 8/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Rashad Evans won by Decision - Split (R3)
Evans 58%42% Bisping
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Evans)
Light Heavyweight✓
Thiago Silva won by KO/TKO (R1)
Silva 53%47% Alexander
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Alexander)
→Striking volume advantage: -14.6(favors Alexander)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Silva)
Welterweight✓
Karo Parisyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Parisyan 81%19% Chonan
STRONG
→Elo gap: +380(favors Parisyan)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Parisyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.6(favors Parisyan)
Middleweight✓
Ed Herman won by KO/TKO (R3)
Herman 79%21% Doerksen
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Herman)
Lightweight✓
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 68%32% Fisher
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Edgar)
Welterweight✓
Thiago Alves won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alves 71%29% Lytle
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +337(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Lytle)
Lightweight✓
Joe Lauzon won by Submission (R1)
Lauzon 82%18% Reinhardt
STRONG
→Elo gap: +281(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.5(favors Lauzon)
Lightweight✓
Marcus Aurelio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aurelio 62%38% Caudillo
LEAN
→Elo gap: +30(favors Aurelio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Aurelio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Caudillo)
Welterweight✗
Akihiro Gono won by Submission (R2)
Gono 20%80% McCrory
STRONG
→Elo gap: -106(favors McCrory)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors McCrory)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors McCrory)