UFC 76: Knockout: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Liddell at 1035 versus Jardine at 950. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Keith Jardine.** The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 453 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Griffin's all-rounder game against Rua's striker approach. Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rua brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Mauricio Rua.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 258 points above Sanchez's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Fitch over Diego Sanchez.** The model gives Fitch a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Kazuhiro Nakamura (0-1). Machida is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 664 points above Nakamura's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machida throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Kazuhiro Nakamura.** The model is firm on this one: Machida at 78%.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1).

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 199 points above Griffin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Tyson Griffin.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rich Clementi (5-4) taking on Anthony Johnson (13-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 674 points above Clementi's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Clementi's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Clementi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 12.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Rich Clementi.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Diego Saraiva (0-2).

Stephens is rated at 941 — 167 points above Saraiva's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saraiva throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Saraiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Diego Saraiva.** The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Christian Wellisch (2-2) taking on Scott Junk (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wellisch at 891, Junk at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wellisch throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Wellisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Junk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Wellisch over Scott Junk.** The model gives Wellisch a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Wiman.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wiman at 868 versus Omigawa at 753. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Wiman's knockout artist game against Omigawa's wrestler approach. Wiman is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Omigawa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Omigawa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Wiman over Michihiro Omigawa.** The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.