UFC 73: Stacked: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Alvin Robinson (1-2). Florian will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 449 points above Robinson's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Robinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Florian over Alvin Robinson.** We're leaning Florian here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1154 versus Marquardt at 1064. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over Nate Marquardt.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Evans carries a modest Elo edge (1121 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashad Evans over Tito Ortiz.** The model gives Evans a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Hermes Franca (6-4). Franca will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sherk is rated at 1371 — 264 points above Franca's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franca throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Franca has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Sherk over Hermes Franca.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sherk at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5) taking on Heath Herring (2-2).

Nogueira carries a modest Elo edge (1008 to 932), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herring throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Herring is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Heath Herring over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.** The model gives Herring a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Mike Nickels (1-0).

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 294 points above Nickels's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nickels throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nickels is far more active with takedowns, averaging 12.8 more per 15 minutes. Nickels has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Nickels over Stephan Bonnar.** The model gives Nickels a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Gurgel (3-3) taking on Diego Saraiva (0-2).

Gurgel carries a modest Elo edge (811 to 774), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurgel throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Saraiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Gurgel over Diego Saraiva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gurgel at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Jason Gilliam (0-1).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 577 points above Gilliam's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Lytle over Jason Gilliam.** The model is firm on this one: Lytle at 75%.

The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Mark Bocek (7-5). Bocek is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Bocek carries a modest Elo edge (1230 to 1185), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bocek looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bocek the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Mark Bocek.** The model is firm on this one: Edgar at 76%.