UFC 72: Victory: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6).

Franklin carries a modest Elo edge (1094 to 1061), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Franklin's knockout artist game against Okami's wrestler approach. Franklin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Rich Franklin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Okami at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Hector Ramirez (0-1).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 518 points above Ramirez's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramirez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hector Ramirez over Forrest Griffin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramirez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Rory Singer (2-1). MacDonald will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Singer at 961 versus MacDonald at 831. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Singer throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Singer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Rory Singer.** The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tyson Griffin (8-5) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Griffin at 925, Guida at 926. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clay Guida over Tyson Griffin.** The model gives Guida a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Scott Smith (1-2). Herman will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Herman is rated at 1045 — 209 points above Smith's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ed Herman over Scott Smith.** We're leaning Herman here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Jason Tan (0-1).

Davis is rated at 1032 — 196 points above Tan's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Tan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Davis over Jason Tan.** We're leaning Davis here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Eddie Sanchez (3-2) taking on Colin Robinson (0-1).

Sanchez is rated at 919 — 163 points above Robinson's 757. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Robinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Robinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eddie Sanchez over Colin Robinson.** The model is firm on this one: Sanchez at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Dustin Hazelett (5-4) taking on Stevie Lynch (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hazelett at 973 versus Lynch at 888. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hazelett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lynch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Hazelett over Stevie Lynch.** The model is firm on this one: Hazelett at 79%.