UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher lands on Tuesday, June 12, 2007 in Hollywood, Florida, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Fisher vs Sam StoutLightweight | Spencer Fisher | Lean | 59% |
| Jon Fitch vs Roan CarneiroWelterweight | Jon Fitch | Toss-up | 54% |
| Drew McFedries vs Jordan RadevMiddleweight | Drew McFedries | Strong | 77% |
| Thiago Tavares vs Jason BlackLightweight | Thiago Tavares | Strong | 86% |
| Forrest Petz vs Luigi FioravantiWelterweight | Luigi Fioravanti | Strong | 78% |
| Tamdan McCrory vs Pete SprattWelterweight | Pete Spratt | Lean | 63% |
| Gleison Tibau vs Jeff CoxLightweight | Gleison Tibau | Strong | 83% |
| Anthony Johnson vs Chad ReinerWelterweight | Chad Reiner | Toss-up | 52% |
| Nate Mohr vs Luke CaudilloLightweight | Nate Mohr | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Spencer Fisher vs Sam Stout
The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Sam Stout (9-10). Stout is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Fisher at 876 versus Stout at 756. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Sam Stout. The model gives Fisher a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Jon Fitch vs Roan Carneiro
The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Roan Carneiro (4-4).
Fitch is rated at 1398 — 283 points above Carneiro's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Fitch over Roan Carneiro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fitch at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Drew McFedries vs Jordan Radev
The Middleweight matchup features Drew McFedries (4-4) taking on Jordan Radev (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: McFedries at 983 versus Radev at 842. That 141-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McFedries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Radev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Drew McFedries over Jordan Radev. The model is firm on this one: McFedries at 77%.
Thiago Tavares vs Jason Black
The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Jason Black (0-1).
Tavares is rated at 1124 — 281 points above Black's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Black has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Jason Black. The model is firm on this one: Tavares at 86%.
Forrest Petz vs Luigi Fioravanti
The Welterweight matchup features Forrest Petz (2-4) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-4).
Fioravanti is rated at 987 — 203 points above Petz's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Petz's striker game against Fioravanti's wrestler approach. Petz brings a versatile approach, while Fioravanti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fioravanti throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Petz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Luigi Fioravanti over Forrest Petz. The model is firm on this one: Fioravanti at 78%.
Tamdan McCrory vs Pete Spratt
The Welterweight matchup features Tamdan McCrory (4-4) taking on Pete Spratt (3-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: McCrory at 976 versus Spratt at 881. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Spratt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving McCrory the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Spratt throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Spratt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. McCrory has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pete Spratt over Tamdan McCrory. The model gives Spratt a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Gleison Tibau vs Jeff Cox
The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Jeff Cox (0-1).
Tibau is rated at 1019 — 195 points above Cox's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tibau throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Cox has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Jeff Cox. The model is firm on this one: Tibau at 83%.
Anthony Johnson vs Chad Reiner
The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Chad Reiner (0-1).
Johnson is rated at 1708 — 862 points above Reiner's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Reiner throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Reiner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chad Reiner over Anthony Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reiner at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Nate Mohr vs Luke Caudillo
The Lightweight matchup features Nate Mohr (1-2) taking on Luke Caudillo (0-1).
Caudillo carries a modest Elo edge (776 to 729), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mohr throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Caudillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Caudillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Mohr over Luke Caudillo. The model gives Mohr a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.