UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Jiri Prochazka (5-2).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 198 points above Prochazka's 1806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's knockout artist game against Prochazka's all-rounder approach. Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Prochazka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Pereira over Jiri Prochazka.** The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-2) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Lopes.

Lopes is rated at 1614 — 379 points above Ige's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lopes's all-rounder game against Ige's knockout artist approach. Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ige is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopes throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Diego Lopes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ige at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 477 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Dolidze's knockout artist game against Smith's all-rounder approach. Dolidze is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze.** We're leaning Smith here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Chiasson at 1145 versus Silva at 1016. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Mayra Bueno Silva.** The model gives Chiasson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Michael Page (2-1). Page will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 368 points above Page's 1419. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garry throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Garry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Michael Page.** The model is firm on this one: Garry at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Joe Pyfer (5-1) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9).

Pyfer is rated at 1530 — 575 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pyfer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pyfer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Pyfer over Marc-Andre Barriault.** We're leaning Pyfer here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Cub Swanson (14-10). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Swanson at 1255 versus Fili at 1140. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Fili's all-rounder game against Swanson's striker approach. Fili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Swanson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swanson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Fili over Cub Swanson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fili at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jean Silva (5-1) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1).

Silva is rated at 1537 — 183 points above Jourdain's 1354. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Jourdain's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jourdain is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jean Silva over Charles Jourdain.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Payton Talbott (4-1) taking on Yanis Ghemmouri (0-1).

Talbott is rated at 1414 — 526 points above Ghemmouri's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Talbott throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ghemmouri is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Talbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Payton Talbott over Yanis Ghemmouri.** We're leaning Talbott here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8).

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 444 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Waterson-Gomez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Waterson-Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** We're leaning Robertson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Martin Buday (6-1) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Buday is rated at 1183 — 325 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Buday is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Buday over Andrei Arlovski.** We're leaning Buday here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Rei Tsuruya (1-0) taking on Carlos Hernandez (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tsuruya at 1021 versus Hernandez at 913. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Tsuruya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Hernandez over Rei Tsuruya.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vinicius Oliveira (4-0) taking on Ricky Simon (10-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Oliveira.

There's a real Elo separation here: Oliveira at 1333 versus Simon at 1223. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Oliveira rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Simon over Vinicius Oliveira.** The model gives Simon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.