UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Sean Salmon (0-1).

Evans is rated at 1121 — 254 points above Salmon's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Salmon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Sean Salmon. The model is firm on this one: Evans at 84%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jake O'Brien (4-2) taking on Heath Herring (2-2).

O'Brien carries a modest Elo edge (1002 to 932), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Brien throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 9.3 more per 15 minutes. Herring has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake O'Brien over Heath Herring. We're leaning O'Brien here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-4) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7). Franca will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Franca is rated at 1107 — 232 points above Fisher's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Franca's wrestler game against Fisher's knockout artist approach. Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fisher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hermes Franca over Spencer Fisher. The model gives Franca a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Dean Lister (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lister at 1214 versus Marquardt at 1064. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lister looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lister the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lister is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Dean Lister. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on Chad Reiner (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Reiner at 846 versus Burkman at 743. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Reiner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Chad Reiner. The model is firm on this one: Burkman at 78%.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Chris Price (0-1).

Herman is rated at 1045 — 275 points above Price's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ed Herman over Chris Price. The model gives Herman a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Din Thomas (5-3) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thomas at 1012 versus Guida at 926. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Thomas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Thomas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Din Thomas. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guida at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rich Clementi (5-4) taking on Ross Pointon (0-1).

Clementi is rated at 1034 — 273 points above Pointon's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pointon throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Clementi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Clementi over Ross Pointon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Clementi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.