UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Liddell at 1035, Ortiz at 1059. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Tito Ortiz.** We're leaning Liddell here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Forrest Griffin (9-5).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 379 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jardine's striker game against Griffin's all-rounder approach. Jardine brings a versatile approach, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Keith Jardine.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — MacDonald at 831, Leben at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Leben over Jason MacDonald.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leben at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Marcio Cruz (2-1).

Cruz is rated at 1105 — 247 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcio Cruz over Andrei Arlovski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cruz at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Eric Schafer (3-5).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 645 points above Schafer's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Schafer's wrestler approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Schafer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Bisping over Eric Schafer.** The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Tony DeSouza (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring DeSouza.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alves at 901, DeSouza at 878. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against DeSouza's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while DeSouza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. DeSouza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. DeSouza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Alves over Tony DeSouza.** We're leaning Alves here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Carmelo Marrero (1-2). Gonzaga is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gonzaga carries a modest Elo edge (967 to 890), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Marrero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Carmelo Marrero.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gonzaga at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Rory Singer (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Okami at 1061 versus Singer at 961. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Singer throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Singer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Rory Singer.** We're leaning Okami here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Christian Wellisch (2-2) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wellisch at 891, Perosh at 872. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wellisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Perosh over Christian Wellisch.** The model gives Perosh a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.