UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-7) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-11-1).

Liddell carries a modest Elo edge (1275 to 1233), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Tito Ortiz. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-7) taking on Forrest Griffin (10-5).

Griffin is rated at 1448 — 392 points above Jardine's 1055. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jardine's striker game against Griffin's all-rounder approach. Jardine brings a versatile approach, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Jardine over Forrest Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jardine at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-8) taking on Chris Leben (12-10). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Leben at 995 versus MacDonald at 867. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is MacDonald's submission artist game against Leben's knockout artist approach. MacDonald is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Leben is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Chris Leben. We're leaning MacDonald here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-18) taking on Marcio Cruz (2-2).

Cruz is rated at 1144 — 151 points above Arlovski's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcio Cruz over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Cruz a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-9) taking on Eric Schafer (3-6).

Bisping is rated at 1615 — 694 points above Schafer's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Schafer's wrestler approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Schafer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Eric Schafer. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-12) taking on Tony DeSouza (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring DeSouza.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alves at 1061 versus DeSouza at 921. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against DeSouza's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while DeSouza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. DeSouza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. DeSouza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Tony DeSouza. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10) taking on Carmelo Marrero (1-3). Gonzaga is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gonzaga is rated at 1072 — 197 points above Marrero's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Marrero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Carmelo Marrero. The model gives Gonzaga a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-7) taking on Rory Singer (2-2).

Okami is rated at 1229 — 253 points above Singer's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Singer throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Singer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Rory Singer. We're leaning Okami here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Christian Wellisch (2-3) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-7).

Perosh carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wellisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Wellisch over Anthony Perosh. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wellisch at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.