UFC Fight Night: Sanchez vs Riggs: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6).

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 297 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Joe Riggs.** We're leaning Sanchez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Jeff Joslin (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Koscheck at 939, Joslin at 968. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Joslin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Jeff Joslin.** The model is firm on this one: Koscheck at 83%.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Drew Fickett (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fickett at 1140 versus Parisyan at 1037. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Parisyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fickett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Parisyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Parisyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Drew Fickett.** We're leaning Parisyan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Shonie Carter (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Davis at 1032 versus Carter at 905. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Davis's all-rounder game against Carter's striker approach. Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Carter brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Carter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Davis over Shonie Carter.** We're leaning Davis here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features David Heath (2-2) taking on Victor Valimaki (0-1).

Heath carries a modest Elo edge (845 to 782), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heath throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Heath is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Valimaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Heath over Victor Valimaki.** We're leaning Heath here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Jorge Santiago (1-4).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 522 points above Santiago's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Jorge Santiago.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belcher at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Luigi Fioravanti (4-4) taking on Dave Menne (2-3).

Fioravanti is rated at 987 — 173 points above Menne's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fioravanti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Menne is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Fioravanti the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menne throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fioravanti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luigi Fioravanti over Dave Menne.** We're leaning Fioravanti here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brock Larson (3-2) taking on Keita Nakamura (4-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nakamura at 987 versus Larson at 876. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Larson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keita Nakamura over Brock Larson.** The model gives Nakamura a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Logan Clark (0-0) taking on Steve Byrnes (0-0).

Clark is rated at 1085 — 170 points above Byrnes's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Byrnes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Byrnes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Byrnes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Logan Clark over Steve Byrnes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Clark at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.