UFC 64: Unstoppable: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1154 to 1094), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's all-rounder game against Franklin's knockout artist approach. Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Franklin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 16.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Silva over Rich Franklin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Kenny Florian (12-4). Florian is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Sherk carries a modest Elo edge (1371 to 1304), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Florian over Sean Sherk. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Florian at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Kuniyoshi Hironaka (1-2). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 520 points above Hironaka's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Hironaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over Kuniyoshi Hironaka. We're leaning Fitch here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Carmelo Marrero (1-2) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 293 points above Marrero's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Marrero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Carmelo Marrero. The model is firm on this one: Kongo at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Dan Lauzon (0-2).

Fisher carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 828), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Dan Lauzon. We're leaning Fisher here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Kalib Starnes (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Okami at 1061 versus Starnes at 936. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Starnes throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Starnes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Kalib Starnes. The model gives Okami a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Justin James (0-0).

Guida carries a modest Elo edge (926 to 890), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. James throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. James is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. James has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Justin James. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guida at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Pellegrino (7-4) taking on Junior Assuncao (2-2).

Pellegrino is rated at 1215 — 253 points above Assuncao's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pellegrino throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pellegrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kurt Pellegrino over Junior Assuncao. The model gives Pellegrino a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.