UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Renato Sobral (5-4).

Sobral is rated at 1190 — 154 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Sobral's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Sobral looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Renato Sobral.** The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6).

Griffin carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1278), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Stephan Bonnar.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on Josh Neer (6-8). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1185 — 313 points above Neer's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diaz's knockout artist game against Neer's wrestler approach. Diaz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Diaz over Josh Neer.** The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Christian Wellisch (2-2). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 293 points above Wellisch's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Wellisch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Christian Wellisch.** We're leaning Kongo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-4) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5).

Franca is rated at 1107 — 334 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Franca is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Varner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franca throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Varner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Varner over Hermes Franca.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Varner at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric Schafer (3-5) taking on Rob MacDonald (1-1).

MacDonald carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 877), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.1 more per 15 minutes. Schafer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eric Schafer over Rob MacDonald.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Schafer at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Wes Combs (0-1).

Gouveia is rated at 1030 — 236 points above Combs's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Gouveia over Wes Combs.** We're leaning Gouveia here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features David Heath (2-2) taking on Cory Walmsley (0-0).

Walmsley carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 845), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walmsley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walmsley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walmsley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Heath over Cory Walmsley.** The model gives Heath a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 232 points above Okami's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Okami's wrestler game against Belcher's knockout artist approach. Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Belcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Yushin Okami.** The model gives Belcher a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.