UFC Fight Night 6: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Karo Parisyan (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sanchez at 1139 versus Parisyan at 1037. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Parisyan's wrestler approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Parisyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Karo Parisyan.** The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Jorge Santiago (1-4). Santiago is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Leben at 855 versus Santiago at 772. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Leben's wrestler game against Santiago's knockout artist approach. Leben looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santiago is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Santiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Santiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Santiago over Chris Leben.** The model gives Santiago a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dean Lister (4-1) taking on Yuki Sasaki (0-0).

Lister is rated at 1214 — 268 points above Sasaki's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lister throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sasaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sasaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dean Lister over Yuki Sasaki.** We're leaning Lister here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-4).

Goulet carries a modest Elo edge (997 to 939), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Goulet is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Koscheck the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Jonathan Goulet.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koscheck at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Crafton Wallace (0-1).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 501 points above Wallace's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wallace throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wallace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wallace has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Crafton Wallace.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kampmann at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Joe Riggs (5-6) taking on Jason Von Flue (1-1).

Flue carries a modest Elo edge (897 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riggs throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Flue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Riggs over Jason Von Flue.** The model is firm on this one: Riggs at 82%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jake O'Brien (4-2) taking on Kristof Midoux (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: O'Brien at 1002 versus Midoux at 873. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Midoux throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Midoux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Midoux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake O'Brien over Kristof Midoux.** We're leaning O'Brien here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Forrest Petz (2-4) taking on Sammy Morgan (0-1).

Morgan carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 784), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morgan throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morgan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Petz over Sammy Morgan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petz at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Torres (1-0) taking on Pat Healy (0-4).

Torres is rated at 983 — 166 points above Healy's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Healy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Healy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Healy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pat Healy over Anthony Torres.** The model gives Healy a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.