UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Saturday, June 22, 2024·Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia·11 fights
Model: 6/11(55%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Robert Whittaker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Whittaker 53%47% Aliskerov
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +443(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.1(favors Aliskerov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Whittaker)
HeavyweightMISS
Alexander Volkov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Volkov 31%69% Pavlovich
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-1.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Volkov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pavlovich)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 69%31% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Gastelum)
MiddleweightHIT
Shara Magomedov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Magomedov 91%9% Trocoli
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +209(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.5(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Trocoli)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Volkan Oezdemir won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oezdemir 43%57% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 45% (-2.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -159(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Walker)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Split (R3)
Haqparast 65%35% Gordon
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-2.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Gordon)
Prelims
FeatherweightMISS
Felipe Lima won by Submission (R3)
Lima 33%67% Naimov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -467(favors Naimov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Naimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Naimov)
WelterweightHIT
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fakhretdinov 79%21% Dalby
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Fakhretdinov)
BantamweightMISS
Muin Gafurov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gafurov 49%51% Kang
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-10.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -367(favors Kang)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Kang)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Kang)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Gadzhiyasulov 62%38% Ribeiro
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 75% (-12.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +191(favors Gadzhiyasulov)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.3(favors Ribeiro)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ribeiro)
BantamweightMISS
ChangHo Lee won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lee 38%62% Long
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Long)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Long)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Long)