UFC 61: Bitter Rivals: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 438 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sylvia brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Arlovski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sylvia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Andrei Arlovski. We're leaning Sylvia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on Josh Neer (6-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Neer at 872 versus Burkman at 743. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Josh Neer. The model gives Burkman a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-4-2). Ortiz is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shamrock carries a modest Elo edge (1125 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Ken Shamrock. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 83%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Dan Christison (1-0).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 227 points above Christison's 1025. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christison throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Christison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Dan Christison. The model is firm on this one: Mir at 81%.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stevenson at 907 versus Edwards at 818. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stevenson's wrestler game against Edwards's knockout artist approach. Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Yves Edwards. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-4) taking on Joe Jordan (0-0).

Franca is rated at 1107 — 190 points above Jordan's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franca throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jordan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hermes Franca over Joe Jordan. We're leaning Franca here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jeff Monson (4-2) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Perosh.

Monson is rated at 1233 — 361 points above Perosh's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Monson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Monson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perosh is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Monson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Monson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Monson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Monson over Anthony Perosh. We're leaning Monson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Gilbert Aldana (0-1).

Kongo is rated at 1183 — 352 points above Aldana's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kongo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Aldana over Cheick Kongo. The model gives Aldana a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Drew Fickett (3-3) taking on Kurt Pellegrino (7-4).

Pellegrino carries a modest Elo edge (1215 to 1140), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pellegrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Fickett over Kurt Pellegrino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fickett at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.