The Ultimate Fighter: Team Ortiz vs. Team Shamrock Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Sam Stout (9-10). Florian will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Florian is rated at 1304 — 548 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stout is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Florian the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Florian over Sam Stout. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Florian at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Josh Haynes (0-2).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 776 points above Haynes's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haynes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Haynes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Haynes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Haynes over Michael Bisping. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Haynes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Ed Herman (13-11). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Herman carries a modest Elo edge (1045 to 994), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Grove's knockout artist game against Herman's all-rounder approach. Grove is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ed Herman over Kendall Grove. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Wilson Gouveia (6-3).

Gouveia carries a modest Elo edge (1030 to 950), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Jardine's striker game against Gouveia's submission artist approach. Jardine brings a versatile approach, while Gouveia is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gouveia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Jardine over Wilson Gouveia. The model gives Jardine a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rory Singer (2-1) taking on Ross Pointon (0-1).

Singer is rated at 961 — 200 points above Pointon's 761. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pointon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pointon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pointon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pointon over Rory Singer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pointon at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kalib Starnes (2-2) taking on Danny Abbadi (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Starnes at 936 versus Abbadi at 835. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbadi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abbadi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Abbadi over Kalib Starnes. The model gives Abbadi a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Luigi Fioravanti (4-4) taking on Solomon Hutcherson (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fioravanti at 987 versus Hutcherson at 862. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fioravanti throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hutcherson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hutcherson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luigi Fioravanti over Solomon Hutcherson. The model is firm on this one: Fioravanti at 79%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Jesse Forbes (0-2).

Hamill is rated at 1150 — 425 points above Forbes's 725. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Forbes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Forbes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Forbes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jesse Forbes over Matt Hamill. The model gives Forbes a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mike Nickels (1-0) taking on Wes Combs (0-1).

Nickels is rated at 984 — 190 points above Combs's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Combs throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Combs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Combs has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wes Combs over Mike Nickels. The model gives Combs a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.