UFC 60: Hughes vs Gracie: Predictions & Analysis

The Catch Weight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Royce Gracie (8-0-1).

Gracie carries a modest Elo edge (1310 to 1273), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gracie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Gracie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Hughes over Royce Gracie.** The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dean Lister (4-1) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7). Lister will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lister is rated at 1214 — 283 points above Sakara's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lister's wrestler game against Sakara's striker approach. Lister looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakara throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Lister has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alessio Sakara over Dean Lister.** We're leaning Sakara here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on John Alessio (0-4).

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 347 points above Alessio's 793. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Sanchez over John Alessio.** We're leaning Sanchez here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Assuerio Silva (0-2).

Vera carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Vera over Assuerio Silva.** The model is firm on this one: Vera at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6). Swick will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Swick is rated at 1045 — 202 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riggs looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Riggs the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Swick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Riggs over Mike Swick.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Riggs at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 495 points above Horn's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Horn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Chael Sonnen.** The model gives Horn a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Wiman.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fisher at 876, Wiman at 868. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Fisher's all-rounder game against Wiman's knockout artist approach. Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wiman is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Wiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Matt Wiman.** The model gives Fisher a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Fabiano Scherner (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzaga at 967 versus Scherner at 820. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Fabiano Scherner.** The model is firm on this one: Gonzaga at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Rick Davis (0-0).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 324 points above Davis's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Rick Davis.** The model is firm on this one: Guillard at 83%.