UFC Fight Night 4: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 328 points above Jardine's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonnar's wrestler game against Jardine's striker approach. Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Jardine over Stephan Bonnar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jardine at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Sam Hoger (2-2).

Evans is rated at 1121 — 196 points above Hoger's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Sam Hoger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Evans at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7). Neer is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Stevenson carries a modest Elo edge (907 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stevenson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Josh Neer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Luigi Fioravanti (4-4). Leben is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fioravanti at 987 versus Leben at 855. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fioravanti looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fioravanti the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Fioravanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Luigi Fioravanti. We're leaning Leben here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Luke Cummo (3-3) taking on Jason Von Flue (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cummo at 896, Flue at 897. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Flue throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Flue has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Von Flue over Luke Cummo. The model gives Flue a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Fitch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 655 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Jon Fitch. The model gives Burkman a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Dan Christison (1-0) taking on Brad Imes (0-2).

Christison is rated at 1025 — 241 points above Imes's 785. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imes throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Imes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Christison has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Imes over Dan Christison. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Imes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Ansar Chalangov (0-1).

Koscheck is rated at 939 — 150 points above Chalangov's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koscheck throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Ansar Chalangov. The model is firm on this one: Koscheck at 81%.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Trevor Prangley (2-1).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 499 points above Prangley's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prangley throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prangley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Prangley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevor Prangley over Chael Sonnen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prangley at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.