UFC 58: USA vs Canada: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on David Loiseau (4-4).

Franklin is rated at 1094 — 175 points above Loiseau's 919. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Franklin's knockout artist game against Loiseau's all-rounder approach. Franklin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Loiseau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over David Loiseau.** The model gives Franklin a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Steve Vigneault (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Swick at 1045 versus Vigneault at 941. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 20.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vigneault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vigneault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Swick over Steve Vigneault.** The model is firm on this one: Swick at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1084 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving St-Pierre the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over BJ Penn.** We're leaning St-Pierre here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Joe Doerksen (2-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marquardt at 1064 versus Doerksen at 925. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Doerksen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Doerksen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Doerksen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Joe Doerksen.** We're leaning Marquardt here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Hominick (3-3) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hominick at 842, Edwards at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Hominick's all-rounder game against Edwards's knockout artist approach. Hominick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hominick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yves Edwards over Mark Hominick.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Sam Stout (9-10) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7). Stout is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fisher at 876 versus Stout at 756. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fisher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sam Stout over Spencer Fisher.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stout at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Lambert (4-3) taking on Rob MacDonald (1-1). MacDonald will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lambert at 890, MacDonald at 913. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob MacDonald over Jason Lambert.** The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Murphy (0-0) taking on Icho Larenas (0-0).

Murphy is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Larenas's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larenas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Larenas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larenas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Icho Larenas over Tom Murphy.** The model gives Larenas a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.