UFC 56: Full Force: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Nate Quarry (7-2). Franklin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Quarry at 1179 versus Franklin at 1094. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Franklin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Quarry brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Franklin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Nate Quarry. We're leaning Franklin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gabriel Gonzaga (12-9) taking on Kevin Jordan (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gonzaga at 967 versus Jordan at 836. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jordan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Jordan over Gabriel Gonzaga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jordan at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 431 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Riggs is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riggs throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Riggs has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Riggs over Matt Hughes. We're leaning Riggs here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Sean Sherk (7-4). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 650 points above Sherk's 1371. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Sherk looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Sherk the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Sean Sherk. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Trevor Prangley (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Horn at 936, Prangley at 932. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prangley throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Prangley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Horn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Trevor Prangley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Horn at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sam Hoger (2-2) taking on Jeff Newton (0-0).

Hoger carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 877), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hoger throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Newton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Hoger over Jeff Newton. We're leaning Hoger here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Ansar Chalangov (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alves at 901 versus Chalangov at 789. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Chalangov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Ansar Chalangov. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Thompson (1-0) taking on Keith Wisniewski (0-3).

Thompson is rated at 1019 — 267 points above Wisniewski's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wisniewski throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wisniewski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wisniewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Wisniewski over Nick Thompson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wisniewski at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.