UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Alex Perez (7-6). Taira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Taira is rated at 1620 — 327 points above Perez's 1293. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Taira's wrestler game against Perez's knockout artist approach. Taira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taira throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over Alex Perez. We're leaning Taira here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-4) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Andrade at 1146 versus Johns at 1044. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Johns's striker game against Andrade's all-rounder approach. Johns brings a versatile approach, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johns throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miles Johns over Douglas Silva de Andrade. We're leaning Johns here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Lucas Almeida (2-3) taking on Timmy Cuamba (1-2).

Cuamba is rated at 1127 — 322 points above Almeida's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cuamba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cuamba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timmy Cuamba over Lucas Almeida. The model gives Cuamba a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brady Hiestand (2-1) taking on Garrett Armfield (2-2).

Hiestand is rated at 1238 — 315 points above Armfield's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Armfield throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hiestand is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Armfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brady Hiestand over Garrett Armfield. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hiestand at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on Jose Johnson (1-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Almabayev is rated at 1349 — 487 points above Johnson's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Asu Almabayev over Jose Johnson. The model is firm on this one: Almabayev at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Adam Fugitt (2-3) taking on Josh Quinlan (1-2). Fugitt will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fugitt at 811, Quinlan at 825. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fugitt throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Quinlan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adam Fugitt over Josh Quinlan. The model gives Fugitt a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Nate Maness (4-2) taking on Jimmy Flick (2-3). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Maness is rated at 1176 — 359 points above Flick's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Flick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Maness the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maness throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Flick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Maness has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Maness over Jimmy Flick. The model is firm on this one: Maness at 75%.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gabriella Fernandes (2-2) taking on Carli Judice (2-1).

Judice carries a modest Elo edge (1183 to 1122), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fernandes throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Judice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Judice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carli Judice over Gabriella Fernandes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Judice at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Westin Wilson (1-2) taking on Jeka Saragih (1-2). Wilson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wilson at 820, Saragih at 797. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilson throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Saragih is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeka Saragih over Westin Wilson. The model gives Saragih a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Melquizael Costa (6-2) taking on Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (3-2). Costa is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Costa is rated at 1550 — 660 points above Nuerdanbieke's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Costa rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Costa's wrestler game against Nuerdanbieke's striker approach. Costa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nuerdanbieke brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nuerdanbieke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melquizael Costa over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Josefine Knutsson (2-0) taking on Julia Polastri (1-2). Polastri will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Polastri carries a modest Elo edge (1106 to 1038), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knutsson throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Knutsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Polastri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josefine Knutsson over Julia Polastri. We're leaning Knutsson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.