UFC 45: Revolution
Friday, November 21, 2003·Uncasville, Connecticut, USA
Model Record: 7/8Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Matt Hughes won by Submission (R1)
Hughes 77%23% Trigg
STRONG
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +432(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Hughes)
MiddleweightHIT
Matt Lindland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lindland 57%43% Vitale
LEAN
→Elo gap: -104(favors Vitale)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Lindland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Lindland)
HeavyweightHIT
Wesley Correira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Correira 68%32% Abbott
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +209(favors Correira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Correira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Abbott)
MiddleweightHIT
Evan Tanner won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tanner 52%48% Baroni
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +0(favors Tanner)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Tanner)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Tanner)
WelterweightHIT
Robbie Lawler won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lawler 75%25% Lytle
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +98(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.6(favors Lawler)
HeavyweightMISS
Pedro Rizzo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rizzo 30%70% Rodriguez
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Rodriguez)
MiddleweightHIT
Keith Rockel won by Submission (R1)
Rockel 74%26% Liguori
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -152(favors Liguori)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Rockel)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Rockel)
LightweightHIT
Yves Edwards won by KO/TKO (R2)
Edwards 68%32% Agallar
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +185(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Edwards)