UFC 41: Onslaught: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Ricco Rodriguez (5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sylvia at 1296 versus Rodriguez at 1157. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sylvia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sylvia throws significantly more leather — a 18.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Tim Sylvia.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 475 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frank Mir over David Abbott.** We're leaning Mir here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight championship matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Penn at 938, Uno at 944. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Uno the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: BJ Penn over Caol Uno.** We're leaning Penn here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Lindland is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lindland is rated at 1239 — 477 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lindland's wrestler game against Baroni's striker approach. Lindland looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Baroni brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Lindland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Lindland over Phil Baroni.** The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Pedro Rizzo (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rizzo at 1268 versus Matyushenko at 1126. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rizzo throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Pedro Rizzo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matyushenko at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Din Thomas (5-3) taking on Matt Serra (7-6).

Serra is rated at 1201 — 189 points above Thomas's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Thomas's wrestler game against Serra's knockout artist approach. Thomas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Serra is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thomas throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Din Thomas over Matt Serra.** The model gives Thomas a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Gan McGee (2-1) taking on Alexandre Dantas (0-1).

McGee is rated at 1100 — 279 points above Dantas's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dantas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gan McGee over Alexandre Dantas.** We're leaning McGee here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Rich Clementi (5-4).

Clementi is rated at 1034 — 217 points above Edwards's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clementi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Clementi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yves Edwards over Rich Clementi.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.