UFC 40: Vendetta
Friday, November 22, 2002·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/8Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Tito Ortiz won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ortiz 78%22% Shamrock
STRONG
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +144(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Ortiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Ortiz)
Light Heavyweight✓
Chuck Liddell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Liddell 59%41% Sobral
LEAN
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +325(favors Liddell)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Liddell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Sobral)
Welterweight✓
Matt Hughes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hughes 90%10% Castillo
STRONG
→Elo gap: +286(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Hughes)
Welterweight✗
Carlos Newton won by Submission (R1)
Newton 44%56% Spratt
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -116(favors Spratt)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Spratt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Newton)
Welterweight✓
Robbie Lawler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lawler 78%22% Ghosn
STRONG
→Elo gap: +342(favors Lawler)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Lawler)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Lawler)
Heavyweight✓
Andrei Arlovski won by KO/TKO (R1)
Arlovski 55%45% Freeman
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -370(favors Freeman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Freeman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Arlovski)
Heavyweight✓
Vladimir Matyushenko won by KO/TKO (R1)
Matyushenko 65%35% Wiuff
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +86(favors Matyushenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Matyushenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Matyushenko)
Middleweight✗
Phillip Miller won by Submission (R2)
Miller 39%61% Weir
LEAN
→Elo gap: -48(favors Weir)
→Striking volume advantage: -22.0(favors Weir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Miller)