UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 529 points above Poirier's 1681. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Makhachev's wrestler game against Poirier's knockout artist approach. Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Dustin Poirier.** The model is firm on this one: Makhachev at 84%.

The Middleweight championship matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Paulo Costa (6-4). Strickland will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 300 points above Costa's 1513. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Costa brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Strickland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Paulo Costa.** We're leaning Strickland here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holland at 1257, Oleksiejczuk at 1268. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Holland's all-rounder game against Oleksiejczuk's striker approach. Holland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Michal Oleksiejczuk.** The model gives Holland a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Alex Morono (13-9). Price will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morono carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Price throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Morono over Niko Price.** We're leaning Morono here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 339 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Brown over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.** We're leaning Brown here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Roman Kopylov (6-4) taking on Cesar Almeida (3-1).

Kopylov is rated at 1277 — 170 points above Almeida's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cesar Almeida over Roman Kopylov.** The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jailton Almeida (8-2) taking on Alexandr Romanov (6-3). Almeida will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Almeida at 1428 versus Romanov at 1307. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romanov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Romanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Alexandr Romanov.** We're leaning Almeida here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Joe Solecki (5-3).

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 304 points above Solecki's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Solecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Grant Dawson over Joe Solecki.** We're leaning Dawson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Phil Rowe (4-4). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 254 points above Rowe's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Phil Rowe.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matthews at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Bassil Hafez (1-1) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hafez is rated at 965 — 204 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gall throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hafez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Gall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mickey Gall over Bassil Hafez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gall at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Joselyne Edwards (7-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Perez at 1291, Edwards at 1320. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Both fighters bring momentum: Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Edwards has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Perez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ailin Perez over Joselyne Edwards.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Andre Lima (3-0) taking on Mitch Raposo (0-2). Lima is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1207 — 245 points above Raposo's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lima rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Raposo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mitch Raposo over Andre Lima.** The model gives Raposo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.