UFC 38: Brawl at the Hall: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 38: Brawl at the Hall lands on Saturday, July 13, 2002 in London, England, United Kingdom with 7 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hughes vs Carlos NewtonWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Strong | 76% |
| Ian Freeman vs Frank MirHeavyweight | Frank Mir | Lean | 60% |
| Mark Weir vs Eugene JacksonMiddleweight | Eugene Jackson | Lean | 60% |
| Genki Sudo vs Leigh RemediosLightweight | Leigh Remedios | Toss-up | 53% |
| Phillip Miller vs James ZikicLight Heavyweight | James Zikic | Lean | 55% |
| Renato Sobral vs Elvis SinosicLight Heavyweight | Renato Sobral | Confident | 74% |
| Evan Tanner vs Chris HasemanLight Heavyweight | Evan Tanner | Confident | 69% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Matt Hughes vs Carlos Newton
The Welterweight championship matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Carlos Newton (3-3).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 250 points above Newton's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Newton looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Newton the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Carlos Newton. The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 76%.
Ian Freeman vs Frank Mir
The Heavyweight matchup features Ian Freeman (3-2) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).
Mir is rated at 1252 — 199 points above Freeman's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Freeman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Mir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Mir over Ian Freeman. The model gives Mir a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Mark Weir vs Eugene Jackson
The Middleweight matchup features Mark Weir (1-1) taking on Eugene Jackson (3-3).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Weir at 877, Jackson at 882. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Weir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Mark Weir. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Genki Sudo vs Leigh Remedios
The Lightweight matchup features Genki Sudo (1-1) taking on Leigh Remedios (0-0).
Sudo is rated at 1110 — 221 points above Remedios's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Remedios throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Remedios is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Remedios has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Leigh Remedios over Genki Sudo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Remedios at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Phillip Miller vs James Zikic
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phillip Miller (1-0) taking on James Zikic (0-0).
Miller is rated at 1211 — 296 points above Zikic's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Zikic throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zikic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zikic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: James Zikic over Phillip Miller. The model gives Zikic a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Renato Sobral vs Elvis Sinosic
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-5). Sinosic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Sobral is rated at 1190 — 369 points above Sinosic's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Sobral is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Sinosic the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sinosic throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Renato Sobral over Elvis Sinosic. We're leaning Sobral here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Evan Tanner vs Chris Haseman
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Chris Haseman (0-0).
Tanner carries a modest Elo edge (1034 to 979), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Haseman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Evan Tanner over Chris Haseman. We're leaning Tanner here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.