UFC 37.5: As Real As It Gets: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 37.5: As Real As It Gets lands on Saturday, June 22, 2002 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 6 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Liddell vs Vitor BelfortLight Heavyweight | Vitor Belfort | Lean | 55% |
| Benji Radach vs Nick SerraWelterweight | Benji Radach | Lean | 62% |
| Pete Spratt vs Zach LightWelterweight | Zach Light | Lean | 61% |
| Robbie Lawler vs Steve BergerWelterweight | Robbie Lawler | Strong | 75% |
| Tony Fryklund vs Rodrigo RuasMiddleweight | Tony Fryklund | Lean | 57% |
| Yves Edwards vs Joao PieriniLightweight | Yves Edwards | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Chuck Liddell vs Vitor Belfort
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Vitor Belfort (15-9). Liddell is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Belfort is rated at 1255 — 220 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Belfort's submission artist approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Belfort is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Chuck Liddell. The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Benji Radach vs Nick Serra
The Welterweight matchup features Benji Radach (1-0) taking on Nick Serra (0-0).
Radach carries a modest Elo edge (994 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Radach throws significantly more leather — a 22.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Serra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Benji Radach over Nick Serra. The model gives Radach a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Pete Spratt vs Zach Light
The Welterweight matchup features Pete Spratt (3-3) taking on Zach Light (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Spratt at 881, Light at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Light throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Light is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Light has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Zach Light over Pete Spratt. The model gives Light a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Robbie Lawler vs Steve Berger
The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Steve Berger (0-1).
Lawler is rated at 1297 — 451 points above Berger's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Steve Berger. The model is firm on this one: Lawler at 75%.
Tony Fryklund vs Rodrigo Ruas
The Middleweight matchup features Tony Fryklund (2-1) taking on Rodrigo Ruas (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Fryklund at 1024 versus Ruas at 885. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fryklund throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fryklund is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tony Fryklund over Rodrigo Ruas. The model gives Fryklund a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Yves Edwards vs Joao Pierini
The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Joao Pierini (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Edwards at 818, Pierini at 820. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pierini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yves Edwards over Joao Pierini. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.