UFC 37: High Impact: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Murilo Bustamante (2-1) taking on Matt Lindland (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bustamante at 1363 versus Lindland at 1239. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindland throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bustamante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bustamante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Lindland over Murilo Bustamante. The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ricco Rodriguez (5-1) taking on Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1157 versus Kohsaka at 1014. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kohsaka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Kohsaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Tsuyoshi Kohsaka. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Paul Creighton (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Penn at 938, Creighton at 951. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Creighton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: BJ Penn over Paul Creighton. The model is firm on this one: Penn at 88%.

The Middleweight matchup features Phil Baroni (3-6) taking on Amar Suloev (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Suloev at 860 versus Baroni at 762. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Baroni is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Suloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Baroni over Amar Suloev. The model gives Baroni a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Caol Uno (3-4-2) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Uno at 944 versus Edwards at 818. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Uno the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Uno throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Uno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Uno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caol Uno over Yves Edwards. The model gives Uno a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ivan Salaverry (3-3) taking on Andrei Semenov (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Semenov at 979 versus Salaverry at 874. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semenov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Semenov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Salaverry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Semenov over Ivan Salaverry. The model gives Semenov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Benji Radach (1-0) taking on Steve Berger (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Radach at 994 versus Berger at 845. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berger throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Berger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Radach has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benji Radach over Steve Berger. The model gives Radach a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5). Lawler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 439 points above Riley's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Riley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Aaron Riley. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lawler at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.