UFC 35: Throwdown: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Jens Pulver (6-2-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-13-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pulver at 1229 versus Penn at 1142. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pulver's knockout artist game against Penn's all-rounder approach. Pulver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: BJ Penn over Jens Pulver. We're leaning Penn here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ricco Rodriguez (5-2) taking on Jeff Monson (4-3).

Monson carries a modest Elo edge (1320 to 1282), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Monson has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Monson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Jeff Monson. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 79%.

The Middleweight matchup features Murilo Bustamante (3-1) taking on Dave Menne (2-4).

Bustamante is rated at 1581 — 775 points above Menne's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menne throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bustamante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Bustamante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Murilo Bustamante over Dave Menne. The model gives Bustamante a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-7) taking on Amar Suloev (0-2).

Liddell is rated at 1275 — 481 points above Suloev's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Suloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Suloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Amar Suloev. We're leaning Liddell here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrei Semenov (1-1) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-5).

Almeida is rated at 1222 — 275 points above Semenov's 947. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Semenov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Andrei Semenov. We're leaning Almeida here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kevin Randleman (4-3) taking on Renato Sobral (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Randleman at 1334 versus Sobral at 1224. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Randleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sobral is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Randleman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randleman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Sobral over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Sobral a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Gil Castillo (1-2) taking on Chris Brennan (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Castillo at 1036 versus Brennan at 890. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Brennan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Brennan over Gil Castillo. The model gives Brennan a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Eugene Jackson (3-4) taking on Keith Rockel (1-1).

Rockel is rated at 1026 — 156 points above Jackson's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Rockel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Keith Rockel. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.