UFC 35: Throwdown: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2).

Pulver is rated at 1133 — 195 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pulver's knockout artist game against Penn's all-rounder approach. Pulver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: BJ Penn over Jens Pulver. The model gives Penn a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ricco Rodriguez (5-1) taking on Jeff Monson (4-2).

Monson carries a modest Elo edge (1233 to 1157), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Monson has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Monson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Jeff Monson. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Murilo Bustamante (2-1) taking on Dave Menne (2-3).

Bustamante is rated at 1363 — 550 points above Menne's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menne throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bustamante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Bustamante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dave Menne over Murilo Bustamante. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Menne at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Amar Suloev (0-1).

Liddell is rated at 1035 — 176 points above Suloev's 860. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Suloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Suloev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Amar Suloev. We're leaning Liddell here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrei Semenov (1-0) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-4).

Almeida is rated at 1189 — 209 points above Semenov's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Semenov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Andrei Semenov. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kevin Randleman (3-3) taking on Renato Sobral (5-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Randleman at 1189, Sobral at 1190. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Randleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sobral is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Randleman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randleman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sobral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Randleman over Renato Sobral. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Randleman at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Gil Castillo (1-1) taking on Chris Brennan (1-1).

Castillo carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Brennan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Brennan over Gil Castillo. The model gives Brennan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Eugene Jackson (3-3) taking on Keith Rockel (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rockel at 1004 versus Jackson at 882. That 122-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Rockel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Keith Rockel. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.