UFC 33: Victory in Vegas: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Matyushenko carries a modest Elo edge (1126 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ortiz's wrestler game against Matyushenko's striker approach. Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Matyushenko brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Vladimir Matyushenko.** We're leaning Ortiz here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight championship matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on Dennis Hallman (3-5). Hallman is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hallman carries a modest Elo edge (1203 to 1133), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Pulver's knockout artist game against Hallman's wrestler approach. Pulver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pulver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pulver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jens Pulver over Dennis Hallman.** The model is firm on this one: Pulver at 77%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Murilo Bustamante (2-1).

Bustamante is rated at 1363 — 328 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bustamante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.2 more per 15 minutes. Bustamante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Murilo Bustamante.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Liddell at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Serra (7-6) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Serra is rated at 1201 — 383 points above Edwards's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Serra's knockout artist game against Edwards's all-rounder approach. Serra is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Serra throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yves Edwards over Matt Serra.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight championship matchup features Dave Menne (2-3) taking on Gil Castillo (1-1).

Castillo is rated at 1000 — 187 points above Menne's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menne throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dave Menne over Gil Castillo.** The model is firm on this one: Menne at 78%.

The Welterweight matchup features Jutaro Nakao (1-0) taking on Tony DeSouza (3-2).

Nakao is rated at 1074 — 197 points above DeSouza's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. DeSouza throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. DeSouza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Nakao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony DeSouza over Jutaro Nakao.** The model is firm on this one: DeSouza at 86%.

The Middleweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-4) taking on Eugene Jackson (3-3).

Almeida is rated at 1189 — 307 points above Jackson's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over Eugene Jackson.** We're leaning Almeida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Din Thomas (5-3) taking on Fabiano Iha (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thomas at 1012 versus Iha at 895. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Thomas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Iha is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Thomas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iha throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Iha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Din Thomas over Fabiano Iha.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thomas at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.