UFC 32: Showdown in the Meadowlands: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 32: Showdown in the Meadowlands lands on Friday, June 29, 2001 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tito Ortiz vs Elvis SinosicLight Heavyweight | Tito Ortiz | Strong | 79% |
| BJ Penn vs Din ThomasLightweight | BJ Penn | Strong | 82% |
| Josh Barnett vs Semmy SchiltHeavyweight | Josh Barnett | Lean | 60% |
| Pat Miletich vs Shonie CarterWelterweight | Shonie Carter | Lean | 60% |
| Caol Uno vs Fabiano IhaLightweight | Fabiano Iha | Lean | 56% |
| Vladimir Matyushenko vs Yuki KondoLight Heavyweight | Yuki Kondo | Strong | 76% |
| Ricco Rodriguez vs Andrei ArlovskiHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Lean | 61% |
| Tony DeSouza vs Paul RodriguezWelterweight | Tony DeSouza | Strong | 81% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tito Ortiz vs Elvis Sinosic
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-5). Sinosic will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Ortiz is rated at 1059 — 239 points above Sinosic's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Sinosic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Elvis Sinosic. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 79%.
BJ Penn vs Din Thomas
The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Din Thomas (5-3).
Thomas carries a modest Elo edge (1012 to 938), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thomas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Thomas the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: BJ Penn over Din Thomas. The model is firm on this one: Penn at 82%.
Josh Barnett vs Semmy Schilt
The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Semmy Schilt (1-0).
Barnett is rated at 1454 — 420 points above Schilt's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Barnett over Semmy Schilt. The model gives Barnett a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Miletich vs Shonie Carter
The Welterweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Shonie Carter (3-2).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 245 points above Carter's 905. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Miletich's submission artist game against Carter's striker approach. Miletich is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Carter brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Miletich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Shonie Carter over Pat Miletich. The model gives Carter a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Caol Uno vs Fabiano Iha
The Lightweight matchup features Caol Uno (3-4-2) taking on Fabiano Iha (3-3).
Uno carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Iha is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Uno the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Uno throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Iha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Uno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabiano Iha over Caol Uno. The model gives Iha a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs Yuki Kondo
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Yuki Kondo (1-1).
Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 159 points above Kondo's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kondo throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kondo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yuki Kondo over Vladimir Matyushenko. The model is firm on this one: Kondo at 76%.
Ricco Rodriguez vs Andrei Arlovski
The Heavyweight matchup features Ricco Rodriguez (5-1) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).
Rodriguez is rated at 1157 — 300 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 16.4 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Ricco Rodriguez. The model gives Arlovski a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Tony DeSouza vs Paul Rodriguez
The Welterweight matchup features Tony DeSouza (3-2) taking on Paul Rodriguez (0-0).
Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (916 to 878), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. DeSouza throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. DeSouza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tony DeSouza over Paul Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: DeSouza at 81%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.