UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 513 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Murphy's all-rounder game against Barboza's striker approach. Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Edson Barboza.** The model gives Murphy a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Carlston Harris (4-2).

Williams carries a modest Elo edge (1159 to 1097), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Williams's striker game against Harris's wrestler approach. Williams brings a versatile approach, while Harris looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlston Harris over Khaos Williams.** The model gives Harris a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Themba Gorimbo (4-2) taking on Ramiz Brahimaj (5-3). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Brahimaj carries a modest Elo edge (1144 to 1085), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Brahimaj has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Gorimbo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brahimaj is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Gorimbo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brahimaj throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Brahimaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Ramiz Brahimaj.** We're leaning Gorimbo here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-2) taking on Vinicius Salvador (0-2).

Yanez is rated at 1203 — 383 points above Salvador's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salvador is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vinicius Salvador over Adrian Yanez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salvador at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Luana Pinheiro (3-3).

Hill is rated at 1074 — 160 points above Pinheiro's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Pinheiro's all-rounder approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Pinheiro is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Pinheiro over Angela Hill.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pinheiro at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Tom Nolan (3-1) taking on Victor Martinez (0-1). Nolan is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nolan is rated at 1262 — 510 points above Martinez's 752. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nolan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nolan throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Nolan over Victor Martinez.** We're leaning Nolan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Oumar Sy (2-1) taking on Tuco Tokkos (0-2). Sy will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sy is rated at 1201 — 202 points above Tokkos's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tokkos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokkos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tokkos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Oumar Sy over Tuco Tokkos.** The model gives Sy a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Gatto (2-2) taking on Tamires Vidal (1-2).

Gatto is rated at 1148 — 364 points above Vidal's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vidal throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gatto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Vidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tamires Vidal over Melissa Gatto.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vidal at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Abus Magomedov (4-2) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7). Magomedov is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Magomedov is rated at 1280 — 385 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Magomedov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Magomedov's all-rounder game against Alves's knockout artist approach. Magomedov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abus Magomedov over Warlley Alves.** The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ariane Carnelossi (3-2) taking on Piera Rodriguez (3-2).

Rodriguez is rated at 1203 — 274 points above Carnelossi's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Carnelossi's all-rounder game against Rodriguez's striker approach. Carnelossi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rodriguez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Piera Rodriguez over Ariane Carnelossi.** The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 79%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alatengheili (5-2-1) taking on Kleydson Rodrigues (1-2).

Alatengheili is rated at 1129 — 206 points above Rodrigues's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alatengheili over Kleydson Rodrigues.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alatengheili at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Vanessa Demopoulos (5-4) taking on Emily Ducote (2-2). Ducote will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ducote carries a modest Elo edge (952 to 883), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ducote throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Demopoulos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ducote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos.** The model gives Ducote a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.